Six days before the first wave, the free mint has become the most talked-about thing in Yakkamon and, as far as I can tell, the least calculated. Everybody knows there are 68 Legendaries hidden in 10,000 NFTs. Almost nobody has done the arithmetic on what that means for their wallet, their wave, or the wave they are waiting for. So I did it — with live numbers, not vibes.
As of 18:40 UTC on September 8: 133,408 trainers have registered for Season 0 (the cap is 500,000), 5,219 wallets have deposited $FLOWER (5.9 million $FLOWER between them, 4.9M on Base and 1.0M on Ronin), and $FLOWER is at $0.25. Those three numbers, plus the official free-mint page, are all the inputs below. The headline findings: Wave 5 probably doesn’t exist, there is a 73% chance nobody mints a Storm on day one, and $1.25 buys two mint tickets until the snapshot on September 10.
The odds, per ticket
The official page is exact about the pool: 68 Legendaries (3 Storm, 5 Echo, 10 Ghost, 50 Bloom), 50 Rares and 9,882 Uncommons. One mint is one draw from that pool.
| Per single mint | Chance | One in |
|---|---|---|
| Legendary (any of the four) | 0.68% | 147 |
| Rare or better | 1.18% | 85 |
| Storm specifically | 0.03% | 3,333 |
| Uncommon | 98.82% | — |
The rule that matters most for these odds is the one people skim past: one mint per wallet per wave, but every wave you qualify for. A top-1,000 trainer with 5 $FLOWER deposited can mint in Waves 1, 2 and 4 — three tickets. Add the Ronin Wave and a Wave 5 leftover and it is five. Here is what stacking actually buys you.
| Tickets | Who has this many | ≥1 Legendary | ≥1 Rare or better | ≥1 Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Most people who mint at all | 0.68% | 1.18% | 0.03% |
| 2 | Ranks 1,001–10,000 with a deposit (Waves 2 + 4) | 1.36% | 2.35% | 0.06% |
| 3 | Top 1,000 with a deposit (Waves 1 + 2 + 4) | 2.03% | 3.50% | 0.09% |
| 4 | Top 1,000 who are also Ronin gamers | 2.69% | 4.64% | 0.12% |
| 5 | All of the above plus a Wave 5 leftover | 3.35% | 5.76% | 0.15% |
So the best-placed wallet in the game, minting in every wave it can, has about a one-in-thirty chance of a Legendary and a one-in-2,200 chance of two. Three tickets is not three times better than one in any way that changes a decision; it is three Uncommons instead of one, 96% of the time. That is not a reason to skip a wave — every ticket is free — it is a reason not to plan your week around the outcome.
Wave 5 probably doesn’t exist
Add up the headline supplies on the official page: Wave 1 1,000, Wave 2 3,000, Wave 3 2,000, Wave 4 5,000. That is 11,000 mints for 10,000 NFTs, and the page says so itself: Wave 4 “will end early if 10k supply is fully minted”. Wave 5 is listed as “remaining”.
Follow that through. If Waves 1, 2 and 3 sell out, Wave 4 opens with 4,000, not 5,000. If Wave 4 then sells out too, Wave 5 opens with zero. The wave that 30,000 trainers in ranks 20,001–50,000 are waiting for — the only wave they qualify for — is the one that only exists if someone above them doesn’t turn up.
| Wave | Headline supply | Supply if every earlier wave sells out | Who can mint |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Sept 14 | 1,000 | 1,000 | Top 1,000 — guaranteed |
| 2 · Sept 15 | 3,000 | 3,000 | Ranks 1–10,000 with 5 $FLOWER |
| 3 · Sept 16 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Active Ronin gamers |
| 4 · Sept 17 | 5,000 | 4,000 | Ranks 1–20,000 with 5 $FLOWER |
| 5 · Sept 18 | Remaining | 0 | Ranks 1–50,000 |
… unless the depositors don’t turn up
This is where the live data earns its place. Waves 2 and 4 both require a $FLOWER deposit, and only 5,219 wallets have one. Those two waves put 7,000 to 8,000 NFTs in front of the same five thousand or so wallets, each of which can take one per wave. The turnout arithmetic:
- Wave 2 (3,000) sells out if 57% of depositor wallets mint. Likely.
- Wave 4 (4,000 in the sell-out case, 5,000 otherwise) sells out only if 77% to 96% of those same wallets come back the next day and mint again. Possible; not a given.
So the realistic shape of the week is: Wave 1 is a formality, Wave 2 sells out, Wave 4 is the swing wave, and Wave 5 is a race among up to 50,000 ranks for whatever Wave 4 left on the table — anywhere from nothing to a couple of thousand. If you are in ranks 20,001–50,000, set an alarm for 00:00 UTC on September 18 and expect crumbs, not a wave. Two things could move this: the depositor count can still rise before the September 10 snapshot (see the next section), and the Ronin Wave’s 2,000 has its own turnout question, since its list is a snapshot of people who play other games and may never have heard of this one.
$1.25 buys two tickets
Five $FLOWER is $1.25 at today’s price, and it is the entry fee for both deposit waves. The docs are explicit that it is not a fee — “the amount is fully withdrawable or spendable once the game goes live” — but it is a condition, and it has a deadline: the whitelists are taken from the September 10 snapshot.
Who does it help? Anyone ranked 1–20,000 without a deposit. On deposit points alone, 5 $FLOWER at this week’s 2.4× multiplier is 12 points, which puts you above the 128,000 registered trainers who have deposited nothing at all. The official rank also counts nurture streaks and referrals, so I can’t tell you the exact points line at rank 20,000 — but with 133,408 registered and only 5,219 depositors, ranks 1–20,000 is a wide door and a small deposit walks most people through it. If you are ranked inside 10,000 already, the same $1.25 turns one wave into two (Wave 2 and Wave 4). That is the cheapest entry in the whole pre-registration program, and it is the only line in this piece that expires this week. Deposit on Ronin if you can — the mint is Ronin-only and the wallet that minted is the wallet that plays.
62.5% of registered trainers have no wave
The widest wave stops at rank 50,000. There are 133,408 registered trainers. That leaves 83,408 people — 62.5% of everyone who signed up — with no wave at all, and another 30,000 (ranks 20,001–50,000) whose only wave is the one that may not exist.
For those 83,000 the one door is the Ronin Wave: 2,000 mints for the 42,730 wallets on the Ronin gamers list — a 4.7% ratio if it comes down to a click race, and a list you are either on or not. Pre-registering, depositing, streaks and referrals do nothing for it. That is worth saying plainly, because a lot of the 133,408 will spend mint week refreshing a launchpad page that will never let them in. If you are below 50,000 and not a Ronin gamer, your route to a Genesis Yakkamon is the marketplace after the mint, or the hunting grounds after launch — not this week.
Where the 68 Legendaries land
If rarity is assigned uniformly at the reveal, each wave’s share of the Legendaries is simply its share of the tickets. That gives every wave an expected haul, and it gives the three Storms a probability of turning up in each.
| Wave | Tickets | Share | Expected Legendaries | Expected Storms | Chance of at least one Storm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · top 1,000 | 1,000 | 10% | 6.8 | 0.3 | 27% |
| 2 · ranks ≤10,000 + deposit | 3,000 | 30% | 20.4 | 0.9 | 66% |
| 3 · Ronin gamers | 2,000 | 20% | 13.6 | 0.6 | 49% |
| 4 · the leftover wave | 4,000 | 40% | 27.2 | 1.2 | 78% |
Three things fall out of that table. There is a 73% chance that nobody mints a Storm on day one — the guaranteed wave for the top 1,000 has a tenth of the tickets and an expected 0.3 Storms. There is a 49% chance that one of the three Storms goes to a Ronin gamer who may never have pre-registered. And Wave 4, the leftover wave, is statistically the richest — 27 of the 68 Legendaries and the best odds of a Storm — for no reason other than that it is the biggest. If Wave 4 runs its full 5,000 the numbers get bigger still (34 Legendaries expected, an 88% chance of a Storm) and Wave 5 gets nothing.
Rank buys certainty, not odds. Wave 1 guarantees the top 1,000 a ticket; it does not make the ticket any better. The only thing that improves your Legendary odds is more tickets, and the cheapest extra ticket is the deposit wave above.
Whales can’t buy in — but 4,000 wallets could hold everything
The rule that caps each wallet at one per wave is the most egalitarian thing in the program. The wallet at rank 1 has 269,958 $FLOWER deposited and gets exactly the same three tickets as the wallet at rank 1,000. There is no way to buy a fourth.
The flip side is concentration by stacking. The Wave 1 set can mint again in Wave 2 and Wave 4; every Ronin Wave wallet could in principle be one of those same people. Work the minimum: 1,000 wallets in Wave 1, 2,000 new wallets to fill Wave 2, 1,000 new wallets to fill Wave 4 — as few as 4,000 wallets could end up holding all 10,000 NFTs. The realistic number is five to seven thousand, because the Ronin list and the leaderboard don’t overlap that neatly. Either way, “10,000 free mints” does not mean ten thousand trainers, and the reveal-day marketplace will be thinner than the headline suggests.
The mint holds 2.5% of the Legendaries
Some perspective from the Yakkapedia supply table. The Genesis Legendary supply is 2,750: 75 Storm, 275 Echo, 400 Ghost, 2,000 Bloom. The pre-registration airdrop hands out 2,009 of them (73%) deterministically, one each to the top 2,000 trainers. The free mint holds 68 (2.5%). Four go to the trainer raffle. The remaining 669 (24%) are unallocated — future hunts, events and whatever else the team has planned.
So for a top-2,000 trainer, the mint adds a 1–2% chance of a second Legendary to the one they are already getting. For everyone else, 68 Legendaries in 10,000 is the only Legendary lottery in town until the hunting grounds open. That asymmetry is the whole program in one line: the airdrop rewards rank, the mint rewards turning up.
Two loose ends in the official numbers, for the record. The mint page says 9,882 Uncommons; the Yakkapedia says 11,882 “appear in Free Mint” — a gap of exactly 2,000. And the 1,500 extra hidden eggs — minted after the mint and handed out at special events before the reveal, per the docs — make 11,500 NFTs at the reveal, with no eligibility or rarity split published for those 1,500. Both are on my question list.
What a hidden egg is worth
The mint page says hidden NFTs are tradable before the reveal. That makes the pre-reveal price a lottery-ticket price, and lottery tickets have an expected value. Measure everything in Uncommons — the thing 98.8% of eggs turn into — and the math is short.
| If a Legendary is worth… | … and a Rare is worth… | A hidden egg is worth |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Uncommons | 3 Uncommons | 1.14 Uncommons |
| 50 Uncommons | 5 Uncommons | 1.35 Uncommons |
| 100 Uncommons | 10 Uncommons | 1.72 Uncommons |
| 300 Uncommons | 20 Uncommons | 3.13 Uncommons |
Nobody knows the multiples yet — there is no market until September 14 — but the shape holds for any of them: selling a hidden egg at the Uncommon floor is selling the ticket for the price of the losing outcome. And after the reveal, 98.8% of the eggs are the losing outcome, at which point the Uncommon floor has 9,882 sellers and very few reasons to hold. If you are a seller at all, the numbers say sell hidden, not revealed; if you are a buyer, the numbers say the hidden premium is real but small unless Legendaries trade at triple-digit multiples. None of that is advice — it is arithmetic on published supply, and it ignores the thing that will actually set prices, which is what a Storm-charged aura turns out to be worth on a farm.
Update, September 12. That market now has an address. The Yakkamon collection page on Ronin Market is live — empty until Wave 1 mints, then the room where every hidden egg is listed and where a floor price for a blind egg forms. The math above is what that floor is quietly pricing.
What I would do with all this
- Top 1,000: mint in Wave 1, Wave 2 and Wave 4 — three tickets, a 2% Legendary chance, no reason to leave any on the table. Your Legendary is coming from the airdrop anyway.
- Ranks 1,001–10,000: make sure 5 $FLOWER is deposited before September 10, then mint in Wave 2 and again in Wave 4. Two tickets.
- Ranks 10,001–20,000: deposit 5 $FLOWER before September 10. It is your only way into Wave 4, and Wave 4 is the wave with the most Legendaries in it.
- Ranks 20,001–50,000: you are betting on Wave 4 leftovers. Be at the launchpad at 00:00 UTC on September 18 and treat anything you get as a bonus. Check the Ronin gamers list too — it is the better door if you are on it.
- Below 50,000: the Ronin list or nothing this week. Don’t spend mint week refreshing a page that can’t open for you; the marketplace opens the moment the first eggs mint, and hidden eggs will be cheaper than revealed Legendaries ever will be.
- Everyone: the wave you can mint in is the wave to mint in. Waiting for a “better” wave is waiting for the same odds with less supply.
The free mint guide has the full rank-to-waves table and the mint-day steps; the board at the top of the home page counts down to whichever wave is next.
Five questions for the team
- What time does each wave open? The page gives dates, not hours; every countdown on the internet is currently guessing 00:00 UTC.
- Is rarity assigned uniformly at the reveal across all 10,000, or seeded per wave?
- Which Uncommon figure is right — 9,882 on the mint page or 11,882 in the Yakkapedia?
- What is the rarity split of the 1,500 special-event eggs, and do they draw from the same 68 Legendaries or their own?
- If Wave 5 opens with supply and doesn’t sell it, what happens to the rest — burned, held, or rolled into the special-event pool?
Read next
- The Ultimate Ronin Free Mint Guide — all five waves, the checklist and mint day
- The Ronin Wave — who the 2,000 gamer mints go to, and how to check your address
- Every decision from the free-mint stream, graded — where the click-race waves got their C+
- The free mint in the FAQ — short answers, including the odds